ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of the population living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. The World Bank disclosed this statistic in its October 2026 regional economic update. Poverty measurement used the global threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points. This rise made Pakistan the leading contributor to extreme poverty within MENAAP.
Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen together represent another 47% of those living below the $3 threshold across the region. Alongside Pakistan, these three countries make up roughly 95% of MENAAP’s extreme poor population. Currently, about 14% of the world’s extremely poor people reside in this region. Sub-Saharan Africa remains the only region with a larger share. MENAAP is also the only region where poverty levels surpass pre-pandemic figures and continue to rise.
Pakistan’s poverty situation worsened even at the higher $4.20 daily threshold used to define lower-middle-income economies. The percentage of people below that line increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. In 2024, the rate reached about 48%, up from 44.7% in 2018. The regional report attributes this decline to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2022 floods, high inflation, currency depreciation, and extended economic adjustments. These shocks are cited as key factors behind the worsening poverty indicators in Pakistan.
Poverty levels escalate following years of economic turmoil
New household survey data issued earlier in 2026 led to significant revisions of regional poverty estimates. The updated figures raised MENAAP’s 2024 extreme poverty rate from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision added roughly 21 million people to the region’s total estimated extreme poor. As of September 2026, MENAAP remained one of only two regions globally with extreme poverty rates above 5%, the other being Sub-Saharan Africa.
Pakistan’s economy has returned to growth, but poverty levels remain high. The latest projections show GDP growth of 3.7% in fiscal 2025-26 and 3.8% in fiscal 2026-27. Real GDP per capita is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is forecasted at 7.1% for 2026, rising to 8.2% in 2027. Despite continued economic expansion, inflation is expected to remain above the 2026 level.
Changes in regional classification influence poverty comparisons
The 48% poverty share also stems from a statistical shift that altered regional comparisons. In September 2025, the World Bank moved Pakistan and Afghanistan from South Asia into the MENAAP reporting group. Pakistan’s government clarified that this administrative move did not change the country’s geographic or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the new grouping impacted regional poverty figures because Pakistan’s large population was now included in MENAAP calculations. This reclassification influences how regional poverty shares are displayed.
The October update also highlighted weaker economic prospects for MENAAP in 2026. The region’s output is expected to contract by 2.1% after growing 3.3% in 2025. Several economies face challenges from conflict and disruptions to energy, logistics, and trade. Developing oil importers, including Pakistan, are relatively more resilient. The update projects 4.3% growth for this group in 2026. However, rising food and energy costs continue to strain household purchasing power across many countries.